{"id":96,"date":"2014-05-02T23:29:54","date_gmt":"2014-05-03T03:29:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.coast2coast.me\/carl\/?p=96"},"modified":"2014-05-03T06:56:37","modified_gmt":"2014-05-03T10:56:37","slug":"one-possible-misconception-surrounding-probability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.coast2coast.me\/carl\/2014\/05\/02\/one-possible-misconception-surrounding-probability\/","title":{"rendered":"A &#8216;Possible&#8217; Misconception About Probability"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I began my first day of my probability course today by asking each student individually students to do the following:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Introduce yourself to the class, say your\u00a0feelings about math using a scale from 1 &#8211; 10, and use the word &#8220;probability&#8221; in a sentence about yourself.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The probability question led to some pretty interesting answers, so I will list a couple of them here:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>There&#8217;s a proabability that I&#8217;ll pass this class<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><p>There is a probability that I will struggle with this class<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><p>There is a probability I will that I&#8217;ll start college in the fall<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Aside from noticing their lack of positivity, these quotes told me that my students\u00a0don&#8217;t really have an understanding of the word probability. \u00a0 It seems\u00a0that they are substituting the word &#8220;probability&#8221; with\u00a0the word &#8220;possibility.&#8221; In all of these\u00a0contexts the word &#8220;possibility&#8221; would make sense syntactically, and for 3 out of 18 students to make this mistake, it seems that this might be a misunderstanding, and not just a typo.<\/p>\n<p>To say &#8220;there is a probability&#8221; is not really a phrase that one would hear normally, and it doesn&#8217;t make sense in that sentence, but substituting &#8220;probability&#8221; for &#8220;possibility&#8221;\u00a0in math might be a misconception that many students might not have to challenge. \u00a0Students who only see the phrases\u00a0&#8220;find the possibility&#8221;, or &#8220;what&#8217;s the possibility&#8221; may immediately realize that they\u00a0are quantifying the likelihood of possible events and decide to do the appropriate procedure. \u00a0These same students maybe confused in later math classes when see phrases like\u00a0\u00a0&#8220;compound probability&#8221; or &#8220;highly probable&#8221; and find themselves struggling with their conception of the word.<\/p>\n<p>I tried to make a clear connection between probability and possibility while clarifying the distinction by saying &#8220;Probability is similar to possibility, because both talk about something that could happen. \u00a0We use probability to take possibility a step further, and actually come up with a number that allows us to say just how likely it is for an event to happen&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>In case you&#8217;re wondering about the kids&#8217; feelings for math, the average was about 5.9, with some 1s\u00a0along with some 10s. \u00a0Students share their\u00a0feelings about math on the first day of \u00a0class because the students\u00a0get to hear and see a range of values. \u00a0Some kids always love math, and others always hate it. This\u00a0prompts me to\u00a0give the speech where I say &#8220;I want us all to recognize that\u00a0some people in here don&#8217;t like math.\u00a0\u00a0It&#8217;s already an uncomfortable environment for some people when they walk in the door. \u00a0Let&#8217;s not make it more uncomfortable by making fun of people, being disrespectful, and separating yourself from the class experience by getting on your phone.&#8221; \u00a0I hope it makes the less comfortable kids feel supported, and prompts the strong kids to consider\u00a0their role in the class.<\/p>\n<p>7\/30 (First week of blogging in the books!) \u00a0#MTBoS<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I began my first day of my probability course today by asking each student individually students to do the following: Introduce yourself to the class, say your\u00a0feelings about math using a scale from 1 &#8211; 10, and use the word &#8220;probability&#8221; in a sentence about yourself. The probability question led to some pretty interesting answers, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"One Possible Misconception Surrounding Probability #MTBoS30","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[9],"tags":[10,13],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4xz6U-1y","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.coast2coast.me\/carl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.coast2coast.me\/carl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.coast2coast.me\/carl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.coast2coast.me\/carl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.coast2coast.me\/carl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.coast2coast.me\/carl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":99,"href":"https:\/\/www.coast2coast.me\/carl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96\/revisions\/99"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.coast2coast.me\/carl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.coast2coast.me\/carl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.coast2coast.me\/carl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}